Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are two groups of picocyanobacteria that contribute to large fractions of global marine primary production. Their widespread geographic coverage and high abundances allow them to dominate the surface oceans, especially in nutrient poor, or oligotrophic, regions. Although Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus are typically co-occurring, different environmental conditions and biological interactions affect their distributions and growth rates. Additionally, global models predict increases in abundance for both populations with increasing temperature and decreased vertical mixing. These organisms also have different ecotypes, or subspecies, that have varying ranges of optima and tolerance for subsequent environmental constraints. Thus, understanding patterns in cell populations can be complex under dynamic ecosystems, especially compounded with the effects of climate change. I use observational data in the North Pacific Ocean to estimate Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus growth rates using a time series analysis. By detangling and identifying the main drivers of growth and production in these populations, many marine ecosystems, especially the open ocean, can be better understood from the bottom up. Furthermore, these biological rates can be incorporated into regional and global models to predict effects on local ecosystems, such as the Salish Sea, to aid in prioritization of conservation and restoration efforts.

An example case study of my research